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MFS Forex Fundamental Analysis- We provide daily commentary

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MFS Forex Fundamental Analysis - thought for the day

US wholesale inventories fell by 0.2pct in January, against expectations of a small build in inventories. Sales at wholesalers rose for the tenth straight month, up by 1.3 per cent in January. The rise in sales pushed the inventory to sales ratio from 1.12 months to1.10 months - a record low.

Chinese export data confirmed the recent strength in exports. Exports rose 45.7pct, while imports rose by 44.7pct in the year to February, both results came in well ahead of expectations. The trade surplus narrowed from $14.2 billion to $7.6 billion in February. China imported 4.83 million barrels of crude oil per day over February - the second highest reading on record.

When compared with the same month last year, both exports and imports grew at a higher-than-expected rate, reflecting growing domestic consumption in China and more demand abroad for Chinese goods, aided by a cheap yuan.

The worst of Greece’s financial crisis is over and other European nations won’t follow in its path, said former European Commission President Romano Prodi.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on March 7 the 16- nation euro region must support Greece, which has more than 20 billion euros of debt falling due in April and May, or risk destroying the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who runs Europe’s largest economy, has so far refused to give the green light to any aid package.

AUDUSD:  Higher metals prices pushed up the Australian dollar Wednesday as dealers wait all important employment numbers Thursday. Aside from gains against the U.S. dollar, the Australian unit set a fresh record against the euro and is at its highest against the pound since it was floated.

Shorter-dated interest rate futures fell to the bottom of their multi month range as another upbeat speech from the central bank spelled out that Australia's economy needs to gear up to ensure inflation remains low and a private indicator showed consumer confidence grew even after an interest rate hike earlier this month.

Offsetting the positive tone was a shock slump in housing finance, which fell 7.9% in January, highlighting the sharp impact recent interest rate hikes are having on borrowers.

We expect a range for today in AUDUSD rate of 0.9100 to 0.9200 (Short at 0.9180, stop loss at 0.9210, target OPEN)

EURUSD:  A European Monetary Fund would play the role of an early warning system for fiscal health and wouldn't take away the responsibility of individual countries to deal with budgetary problems, German Economics Minister Bruederle told reporters Wednesday.

Greek officials are trying to convince investors they can cut the nation’s budget deficit, which at 12.7 percent of gross domestic product was Europe’s largest in 2009. The government last week announced spending cuts and tax increases totaling 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion), the third round of austerity measures this year.

The plans are being developed as a possible way to assist Greece, and any other euro-zone country that comes close to defaulting on its debt, and to get around the fact that European rules currently forbid any bailout.

We expect a range for today in EURUSD rate of 1.3600 to 1.3700 (Short at 1.3690, stop loss at 1.3720, target OPEN)

USDJPY:  The greenback rose to buy 90.55 yen, up from 89.98 yen late Tuesday. Throughout the credit crisis and recession, the Japanese currency was one of the biggest beneficiaries of investor demand for a relatively safe haven from the storms in other markets. As the crisis abated and signs of economic recovery grew, the yen has fallen.

We expect a range for today in USDJPY rate of 90.00 to 91.00 (Long at 90.20, stop loss at 89.90, target OPEN)

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Dailyfx thought - thought for the day
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, Chart,  prices or other information contained on this website, by MFS FOREX, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. MFS FOREX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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